MARKET UPDATE - METALS, CURRENCIES, FINANCIALS

MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
TRADES FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 18, 2018
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be.

MONKEY SEE, MONKEY DO IN THE CURRENCIES: The dollar formed a reversal bottom yesterday on its daily chart and triggered a buy today. Both long term charts have sell signals. The yen, eurofx and swiss all formed reversal tops yesterday on their daily charts. The yen and eurofx both triggered sells today (nothing for the swiss) while all three have buys on their long term charts. This suggests that near term the dollar could try for a rally from its recent lows but it will be one to short. At the same time, the selloff in the yen, eurofx and swiss should be a buying opportunity. Now this all assumes that near term they do what their daily charts suggest. So far this attempt to rally by the dollar does not suggest a major bottom at all. In fact its next support isnt until 88.65 approximately. That is where its 200 avg. on the monthly chart intersects. Plus if you go to the left on its monthly chart, in 2008, 2009 and again in 2010 it tried to get over 89.00 with miserable results (major selloffs). So that resistance is now support long term and the odds of a more serious bottom between that 88.65 and 89.00 is more likely.

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GOAL OF THE MARKET UPDATE: Everyone is busy and having the technical analysis done for you is helpful plus it is presented in a way that is educational too. What I convey to readers is not a personal opinion but what the markets are suggesting by their technical formations and action.

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TRADE SUGGESTIONS: All trades suggested are for the day session only. I do not enter trades for the night session. The purpose of the trade suggestions is to help traders establish the habit of having a complete trade organized prior to entry so that you can determine whether the "risk/reward" is warranted. Too many decide to enter a market and then figure out a protective stop "later." What that usually means is that a protective stop is never placed! The key to trading is to establish good trading habits and that is the first habit to develop.

Sell March mini silver. Sell 16.900. Protective stop 17.455. Potential projection 16.000. (Potential risk $555.00. Potential reward $900.00). Margin: $1430.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts silver reached resistance and sold off.
2. The weekly chart is setting up a potential reversal top to the rally that started in December.
3. On the daily chart the macd is in a selling mode as the value line is now under the average line.
4. On the daily chart silver keeps backing off from the same resistance level that produced the selloff in late November/early December.
5. Silver triggered a sell today.

METALS:

MAR COPPER: In last Thursdays Update I said there should be more selling to this market. So far it has. It has failed its 20 avg. that it had reached last Thursday. It is now under both that and the 10 avg. on its daily chart. Plus the 10 avg. is now under the 20 avg. That is negative and suggests more selling. It has also reached a 38.2% fib. retracement at 318.00 that I suggested and trying to hold there. And it triggered a sell yesterday from Tuesdays huge outside day. Technically this selloff should ultimately offer a buying opportunity. If it has a selloff comparable to previous ones on its weekly chart it should go to 305.00 at least. Closed 319.90, up 1.00.

APR GOLD: Last Thursday I said if the rally continues it could reach 1350.00 before finding any serious resistance. It almost reached it Tuesday (1349.70). It has been down since. Today it is trying to hold at the 10 avg. If it fails, it should go down to 1313.00 approximately on the daily chart. The weekly is attempting to form a reversal top this week. Closed 1332.00, down 12.00.

MAR SILVER: I tried to short it today. My price was not reached. Ill try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 16.954, down .212.

MAR CRUDE OIL: It formed a reversal top Tuesday on its daily chart but has not followed through. It keeps trying to hold 63.50. It did reach resistance long term at 64.00 and stopped. The weekly is attempting to form a reversal top this week. It is starting to suggest a top on the daily chart. Closed 63.89, down .03.

CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:

MAR JAPANESE YEN: It rallied to 91.03 yesterday on the daily and formed a reversal top yesterday. It also triggered a sell today from yesterdays outside day on that chart. In last Thursdays report the next resistance was between 90.50 to 90.60. It over shot that with the 91.03. Now on its weekly chart it is over a lot of resistance and is holding at the 90.00 support. Both long term charts have buy signals now with the daily having a sell signal. That tells me a selloff will be a buying opportunity. Where? Possibly 89.70? Closed 90.37, up .08.

MAR SWISS FRANC: It rallied over the 200 avg. this week and rallied up to the 104.80 level. It now seems toppy on the daily chart but holding the 200 avg. The monthly chart is suggesting the start of a second wave up since the Jan. 2017 low but it is in some resistance. On the weekly it has reached the 200 avg. resistance and is triggering a buy this week. This mess suggests that near term it will probably sell off but that selloff will probably be a buy down at 103.40 to 103.00. Closed 104.77, up .29.

MAR DOLLAR INDEX: That outside day mentioned last Thursday did trigger a sell. It sold off and filled the 90.871 gap on the daily chart. It formed a reversal bottom yesterday and triggered a buy today on its daily chart so it appears it will try for a rally from this level. It could reach 91.600 for a shorting area. Closed 90.297, down .016.

MAR EUROFX: An outside day yesterday (and reversal top) triggered a sell today. And the weekly is triggering a buy this week and the monthly chart triggered one last month. A selloff too the 121.30 support could be a buy again. Closed 122.86, up .02.

MAR AUSSIE: It had some long term resistance at 79.00 but rallied over that easily and reached 80.22 yesterday. It is starting to suggest that it needs a breather (selloff). Its monthly chart is triggering a buy this month and it suggests another wave up with a potential projection to 83.00. Its weekly chart is triggering a buy this week too. If it sells off near term it has support from 78.80 down to 78.60. If it does reach that area, as usual, you need to watch how it behaves and if it gives any technical suggestion that it will hold to buy. Closed 79.97, down .10.

MAR CANADIAN: I really cant read its daily chart. Kind of messy. It has tried to test the Jan. 5 high but backed off yesterday. Yet today it is trading like it is going to try again. The monthly is triggering a buy this month. And the weekly had an earlier buy. At this point 81.00 is the problem in terms of resistance and unless it can get over that, the weekly suggests it could sell off to test the breakout from the consolidation over 79.00. If so it would be a buy. Just watching. Closed 80.50, down .15.

INDICES: It has stalled out again for the last three days around 2808.00 on its daily chart. The long term charts dont even give a hint of a top. Closed

MAR 10 YEAR NOTES: Last Thursday I suggested a rally would be a shorting opportunity. It did not materialize. Instead they sold off and today took out the mid December low (122.145) on their weekly and monthly chart. Next support 122.000. Closed 122.145, down .065.

MAR BONDS: They triggered a sell today from yesterdays outside day on their daily chart. But they are holding the Jan. 10 low of 149.03 so far and forming a double bottom. They are triggering a sell on their monthly chart. Next support 148.00. Their weekly chart triggered a sell last week. If the dollar rallies they should follow to set up a shorting opportunity. Just watching. Closed 149.14, down .28.



Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.