#5 | New Heights

Cocoa and copper continued to make a run for it last week, especially cocoa which traded above $12,000/tonne briefly on Friday before settling at $11,878 - nearly $5.00 per pound! Everyone's new favorite commodity has broken since though, down nearly 15% to start the week.

#4 | New Lows

After spending more than three years trading above the mid-40s, soybean oil fell to multi-year lows last week, erasing all of its renewable diesel-era gains.

A break in palm and energy markets, plus an oversupply in renewables and soft interior basis levels have pressured oil lower in recent weeks. Additionally, dwindling crush margins, slowing crush rates and a slow start to Argentina's harvest have supported meal, resulting in an oilshare unwind, pushing oil lower by default.

#3 | Ooof

After a four-week buying streak in soybean oil, managed money turned sellers in a big way the past few weeks, dumping more than 12,000 contracts of oil in the week ending April 9, followed by a record puke of 53,295 contracts in the week ending April 16.

Nearby futures fell 8% over the course of those two weeks of selling - a trend which likely continued into the end of last week as the market pushed into new lows on Friday. 

Last week's increase in manage money's net short position dwarfs all other weekly changes:

#2 | A Record Build

March NOPA soybean oil stocks were 1.85 billion pounds, coming in above pre-report estimates and a record 161-million-pound build from February to March.

Stocks are now up 68% from the start of the 2023/24 Marketing Year, compared with a 21% build at this point in 2022/23 and a mere 4% build in 2021/22 - which helps explain recent lethargic price action.

#1 | Winners & Losers

Comparing year-to-date performance of select commodities with stock indices and the 10-year, 2024 isn't exactly boding well for rural America:

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